Climate Change and Viticulture

Introduction

Climate change represents the most significant challenge facing global viticulture, with rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and increasing weather extremes fundamentally altering growing conditions in established wine regions. For enologists, these changes have direct implications: earlier harvests, higher potential alcohol, lower acidity, altered phenolic development, and new pest and disease pressures. Understanding climate change impacts and adaptation strategies is essential for maintaining wine quality and regional typicity in a warming world. This article examines the science of climate change effects on grapevines and wine, and explores practical adaptation strategies at both vineyard and winery levels.

Observed Climate Changes

Temperature Trends

Global Patterns:

Average temperature increase: ~1.1°C since pre-industrial
Wine regions: Often warming faster than average
Night temperatures: Increasing faster than day
Heat spikes: More frequent and intense

Growing Season Impacts:

Region	Temperature Change (1980-2020)	GDD Change
Burgundy	+1.5-2.0°C	+200-300
Napa Valley	+1.0-1.5°C	+150-250
Barossa	+1.0-1.5°C	+150-200
Mosel	+1.5-2.0°C	+200-350

Precipitation Changes

General Trends:

Mediterranean regions: Decreasing rainfall
Continental regions: Increased variability
Winter/spring: Shifting patterns
Drought: More frequent in many regions

Extreme Events

Increasing Frequency:

Heat waves
Drought periods
Spring frost (paradoxically, due to earlier bud break)
Intense rainfall events
Wildfires

Vineyard Impacts

Phenological Shifts

Earlier Timing:

Bud break: 1-2 weeks earlier
Flowering: 1-3 weeks earlier
Véraison: 2-3 weeks earlier
Harvest: 2-4 weeks earlier

Historical Evidence (Burgundy harvest dates):

1980s average: October 5
2010s average: September 15
Earliest recorded: August (multiple years)

Implications:

Ripening during hotter period
Compressed development
Decoupled sugar/phenolic ripeness

Fruit Composition Changes

Sugar Accumulation:

Higher °Brix at harvest
Potential alcohol increases
Historical: 12-13% → Current: 14-15%+ ABV

Acidity Decline:

Malic acid degradation accelerated
Higher pH at harvest
Reduced freshness potential

Phenolic Development:

Anthocyanin degradation at high temperature
Accelerated tannin maturation
Potential color loss (reds)

Aromatic Impacts:

Reduced methoxypyrazines (some varieties)
Altered terpene profiles
Loss of freshness markers

Water Stress

Drought Effects:

Reduced photosynthesis
Smaller berries (can be positive)
Premature senescence
Yield reduction
Quality impacts (variable)

Pest and Disease Changes

Expanding Ranges:

Grape berry moth: Northward expansion
Leafhoppers: New regions affected
Mealybug: Increased pressure
Pierce’s disease: Expanding range

Disease Pressure:

Powdery mildew: Changed timing
Downy mildew: Altered patterns
Botrytis: Variable (depends on humidity)

Wine Quality Implications

Style Changes

Red Wines:

Higher alcohol
Softer acidity
Riper tannins
Potential color instability
Loss of regional typicity

White Wines:

Higher alcohol
Lower acidity
Reduced freshness
Altered aromatic profiles

Terroir Expression

Challenge: Maintaining regional character as climate shifts

Examples:

Cool-climate elegance → Warm-climate power
Acidic freshness → Ripe opulence
Subtle complexity → Obvious ripeness

Vineyard Adaptation Strategies

Short-Term Adaptations

Canopy Management:

Increased shading (protect fruit)
Later leaf removal timing
Modified training systems
Reduced hedging

Harvest Decisions:

Earlier picking (preserve acidity)
Night harvesting (cooler fruit)
Multiple passes (select optimal ripeness)
Balance sugar vs. phenolic ripeness

Water Management:

Deficit irrigation strategies
Soil moisture monitoring
Mulching and cover crops
Water storage infrastructure

Medium-Term Adaptations

Variety Selection:

Later-ripening varieties
Heat-tolerant varieties
Drought-resistant rootstocks
Clonal selection

Heat-Tolerant Varieties (examples):

Mourvèdre, Grenache, Carignan
Assyrtiko, Albariño
PIWI varieties

Rootstock Selection:

Drought tolerance: 110R, 140Ru
Delay ripening: Some rootstocks slightly delay
Vigor management

Long-Term Adaptations

Site Selection:

Higher altitude plantings
North-facing slopes (Northern Hemisphere)
Coastal sites
New regions entirely

Altitude Effect: ~0.6°C cooler per 100m elevation

Regional Shifts:

England: Sparkling wine success
Scandinavia: New vineyards
Patagonia: Expanding frontier
Tasmania: Growing interest

New Variety Development:

New Breeding Techniques (NBT)
Heat-tolerance breeding
Disease resistance + climate adaptation

Winery Adaptation Strategies

Must Adjustment

Acid Addition:

Tartaric acid (most common)
Timing: Pre- or post-fermentation
Dosage: To achieve target pH/TA
See pH/acidity adjustment

Alcohol Management:

Earlier harvest (preventive)
Dealcoholization technologies
Spinning cone, membrane systems
Blending with lower-alcohol lots

Fermentation Adaptation

Temperature Control:

Enhanced cooling capacity
Warmer fruit = faster starts
Risk of stuck fermentations (high sugar)

Yeast Selection:

High-alcohol tolerant strains
Low-alcohol producing strains
High-acid producing strains

Style Adaptation

Accepting Change:

Evolve regional style
Communicate changes to consumers
Embrace new character

Resisting Change:

Aggressive intervention
Maintain traditional parameters
Cost and naturalness trade-offs

Economic Implications

Cost Impacts

Increased Costs:

Irrigation infrastructure
Frost protection
Cooling systems
New plantings/varieties
Insurance premiums

Potential Benefits:

New viable regions
Extended growing seasons (some)
Reduced disease pressure (some areas)

Regional Winners and Losers

Potential Beneficiaries:

England, Belgium, Netherlands
Germany (some regions)
Cool-climate New World regions
High-altitude sites

Potential Challenges:

Mediterranean (Spain, Portugal, southern France)
Australia (except Tasmania)
California (most regions)
Traditional warm-climate regions

Case Studies

Burgundy

Observations:

Harvest 3 weeks earlier than 1980s
Alcohol up 1-2%
More vintage consistency (fewer poor years)
Heat spikes during ripening

Adaptations:

Earlier picking
Shade management
High-altitude exploration

Champagne

Observations:

Easier ripening
Less dosage needed
More still red wine potential

Adaptations:

Embracing riper styles
Still Champagne growing
Exploring England as future

Australia

Observations:

Extreme heat events
Bushfire smoke taint
Water scarcity

Adaptations:

Tasmania expansion
Altitude seeking
Alternative varieties
Drought-resistant rootstocks

Future Projections

Temperature Scenarios

2050 Projections (moderate emissions):

Additional 1.5-2.5°C warming
Many current regions marginal
New regions viable

2100 Projections (various scenarios):

1.5-4.5°C additional warming
Dramatic shifts in viability
Significant adaptation required

Research Priorities

Key Areas:

Heat-tolerant variety development
Water-use efficiency
Disease resistance
Terroir preservation
Consumer acceptance of change

Conclusion

Climate change is reshaping global viticulture, challenging winemakers to maintain quality and regional identity while adapting to new realities. For enologists, this means developing new skills in must adjustment, understanding heat-tolerant varieties, and accepting that wine styles will evolve. The most successful regions and producers will be those who acknowledge climate change, invest in adaptation strategies, and communicate transparently with consumers about evolving styles. Climate change is not a future problem—it is the present reality of winemaking.

References

Jones, G.V. et al. (2012). “Climate Change and Global Wine Quality.” Climatic Change, 73(3), 319-343. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-005-4704-2
van Leeuwen, C. & Darriet, P. (2016). “The Impact of Climate Change on Viticulture and Wine Quality.” Journal of Wine Economics, 11(1), 150-167. DOI: 10.1017/jwe.2015.21
Hannah, L. et al. (2013). “Climate Change, Wine, and Conservation.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(17), 6907-6912. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1210127110
IPCC (2021). “Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis.” https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/

Last Updated: January 10, 2026
Research Grade: Technical reference
Application: Vineyard planning, adaptation strategy, future preparation